Basis in Financial Theory
Odds have to be consistent with the real-time pricing of the underlying financial instruments listed on foreign exchange markets or securities exchanges in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities (although this might not be possible because of limitations on shorting, i.e. laying bets). Calculation of the odds therefore draws on the Black–Scholes formula for pricing options. Using some variation of the model to solve for volatility, from observed market prices of traded options, gives implied volatility. Implied volatility is forward looking, that is, it can be used to estimate the odds for future price movements using mathematical algorithms.
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