Export Land Model - Real-world Examples

Real-world Examples

  • Production/Consumption graphs for nations that fit the Export Land Model

  • Indonesia

  • Egypt

  • Malaysia

  • Mexico

5-years change in production and consumption from 11 Export Land countries. Figures in thousand barrels/day.
Country Production Consumption net exports
2002 2007 2002 2007 2002 2007
Argentina 806 698 364 492 442 206
Bahrain 49 48 23 35 25 14
Colombia 601 561 222 228 379 333
Egypt 751 710 534 651 217 59
Indonesia 1289 969 1137 1157 152 -188
Malaysia 757 755 489 514 268 241
Syria 548 394 256 262 292 132
Turkmenistan 192 180 78 117 114 62
Vietnam 339 350 192 294 146 56
Yemen 438 360 112 143 326 217

Several real-world nations exhibit the characteristics of the Export Land Model as pictured in the image gallery above. These four nations exhibit increasing domestic consumption along with declining production. Indonesia has already shifted from oil exporter to oil importer while Egypt is hovering on the brink. Malaysia and Mexico also have the hallmarks of the Export Land Model.

Within 5 years, Mexico (the second biggest exporter of oil to the US) may become a net oil importer. Other nations where this may soon happen include Iran, Algeria and Malaysia.

A recent report from CIBC World Markets also indicates that as much as 40% of Saudi Arabia's expected production increases will be offset by rising internal demand by 2010, and Iranian exports will decline by more than 50% for similar reasons. This report indicates that similar market pressures could reduce net worldwide oil exports by 2.5 million barrels per day (400,000 m3/d) (about 3%).

Nations may also reach their peak of oil production without fitting the Export Land model. For example, the United Kingdom began importing oil in 2006, after decades of exporting, due to declining production. But as domestic consumption in the UK has remained essentially unchanged for the last 20 years, their rising import levels essentially match their falling production levels. Similarly, Norway's exports began declining in 2001, but at the same rate as their production because their domestic consumption was also not growing. Unlike many exporters, these two countries don't subsidize local market oil price and have high fuel prices by world standards, thus one of the premises of the export land model (that domestic consumption should not be affected by world market price) does not apply to those countries.

  • Production/Consumption graphs for nations that do not fit the Export Land Model

  • United Kingdom

  • Norway

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