Export Land Model - Hypothetical Example

Hypothetical Example

Given a hypothetical oil producing country (known by the model as an Export Land) that produces 2 Mbbl/d (320,000 m3/d), consumes 1 Mbbl/d (160,000 m3/d), and exports 1 Mbbl/d (160,000 m3/d) to oil consuming countries around the world, the model would be applied as such (illustrated in the graph above):

Export Land hits the point of Peak Oil production, and over a five-year period production drops by 25%. Over the same time period, Export Land's consumption increases by 20% to 1.2 mbpd. This causes Export Land's net exports over the five-year period to fall from 1 mbpd to 0.3 mbpd, a decrease of 70% -- resulting from a combination of increasing domestic consumption in Export Land and a 25% drop in production. Counter-intuitively, the fractional decline in exports is much greater than the sum of the fractional increase in domestic consumption and the fractional decline in production.