Effects of Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina - Preparations

Preparations

By four days before Isabel made landfall, most computer models predicted Isabel to make landfall between North Carolina and New Jersey, and the National Hurricane Center consistently forecast a landfall on North Carolina. Initially, forecasters predicted a landfall in the northeastern portion of the state, though as the hurricane neared land the predicted landfall position was much closer to where it ultimately was. From three days in advance, the average track forecast error for its landfall was only 36 miles (58 km), and for 48 hours in advance the average track error was 18 miles (29 km). Strong confidence in Isabel's final landfall prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a hurricane watch for the entire North Carolina coastline about 50 hours before Isabel struck land. 38 hours before the hurricane made landfall, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the watch to a hurricane warning for the landfall area. The Newport Weather Forecast Office issued a flood potential statement two days before landfall, which indicated a threat for flash flooding. The office began preparing for the hurricane one week before landfall, and brought additional staff members to assist with hurricane related duties.

Evacuation orders began on September 16, when officials issued a voluntary evacuation for portions of four counties and one entire county. By around 24 hours before landfall, mandatory evacuations were ordered for eight counties, all of which but one were for the entire counties. All coastal counties from Cape Fear northward were under a mandatory evacuation. A survey of 603 residents in northeastern North Carolina indicated 57% of residents along the Outer Banks and 77% of residents in storm surge-prone areas of the Pamlico Sound did not evacuate despite being under a mandatory evacuation. The two primary reasons stated for the residents' evacuation decisions were the hurricane's strength and track. The media and statements from officials were two other reasons. 70% of people along the Outer Banks heard the official evacuation notices, though only 30% of residents near the Pamlico Sound heard the notices. A majority of the respondents to the survey who heard the evacuation notices left the area. None of the surveyed evacuees from the Outer Banks went to a public shelter; 60% went to a friend or a relative's house and 24% went to a motel. Evacuees on the Outer Banks generally went elsewhere in North Carolina or to Virginia. For evacuees around the Pamlico Sound, only 9% left for a public shelter, while 75% left for a friend or relative's house. Most near the Pamlico Sound remained in their own neighborhood or own county. Of the 19 North Carolina counties issuing evacuation orders, the duration of the evacuation process varied between 3 hours to 12 hours in Dare County. Five counties reported heavy amounts of traffic, while traffic problems included stalled cars along roads, inadequate route signing, and flooded or damaged roads.

By the morning of the hurricane's landfall, 65 shelters were prepared with a capacity of 95,000 people. The American Red Cross prepared 100 feeding vehicles in staging areas, and deployed two mobile kitchens each with the capacity to provide 10,000 meals per day. Additionally, five Southern Baptist Convention kitchens were on standby, in total being able to provide 20,000 meals per day.