Political Demography
Once established under the Government of Ireland Act 1920, Northern Ireland was structured geographically to guarantee a unionist majority in its government. In local government the significantly nationalist area of Derry produced a unionist majority through the gerrymandering of the electoral ward. Ironically, when the issue of gerrymandering was addressed in 1973, the changing of the electoral wards favoured Unionism. Anger at local government control by unionists, and the alleged awarding of social housing to Protestants to ensure unionist majorities in areas with large Catholic populations, was a significant factor in the creation of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association in the 1960s, with a sit-in by nationalist politician Austin Currie in a house granted to a 19-year old single Protestant woman (who worked for the Ulster Unionist Party) ahead of a large homeless Catholic family triggering off the movement. This was the only documented case of this having happened. As Currie himself said at the time, "If I had waited a thousand years, I'd never get a better case than this one."
The number of people claiming to be Roman Catholic in the Northern Ireland Census has steadily increased, though has slowed somewhat in recent decades. By contrast, the number of people claiming to be Presbyterian and Church of Ireland in the census has decreased. Statisticians predict both communities will achieve close to parity in size, with Protestants dominant primarily to the east and north of Northern Ireland and Catholics dominant to the west and south. Some foresee an eventual Catholic majority (albeit slight). However, as of 2005 most statisticians predict that Protestants will continue to slightly outnumber Catholics in Northern Ireland as a whole for some time to come. Others claim that the rise in immigration into Northern Ireland coupled with rising number of (mainly younger) people alienated from both religion and the political process could bring about a "no overall control" situation.
The religious affiliations, based on census returns, have changed as follows between 1961 and 2002:
| Religions | 1961 | 1991 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Catholic | 34.9% | 38.4% | 40.3% |
| Presbyterian (Protestant) | 29.0% | 21.4% | 20.7% |
| Church of Ireland (Protestant) | 24.2% | 17.7% | 15.3% |
| Other Religions (including other Protestant) | 9.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% |
| Not Stated | 2.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% |
| None | 0.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% |
Read more about this topic: Demography And Politics Of Northern Ireland
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“Until politics are a branch of science we shall do well to regard political and social reforms as experiments rather than short-cuts to the millennium.”
—J.B.S. (John Burdon Sanderson)