Summary The of Death Toll Estimates of Flight, Evacuation and Expulsion
| Year | Estimate | Source | Reference | Provided in | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 3,000,000 | West German Government | Wirtschaft und Statistik April 1950 | U.S. Congressman B. Carroll Reece Charged that 3 million German civilians had died during the expulsions |
This was a preliminary demographic estimate of the losses by the West German government which included 1.5 million from pre-war eastern Germany and 1.5 million ethnic Germans from East Europe, and is no longer considered valid. At this time only 162,000 missing had been registered with the government. |
| 1953 | 3,140,000(including military dead) | de:Gotthold Rhode | Zeitschrift Für Ostforschung | The first attempt to compute the losses was made in 1953 by the German scholar Gotthold Rhode who estimated civilian and military dead and missing in the area of the expulsions at 3,140,000. This estimate is no longer considered valid.Details by country Oder-Neisse region 1,640,000; Poland 280,000, Danzig 90,000; Czechoslovakia 450,000; Yugoslavia 385,000; Rumania 150,000; Hungary 100,000; Baltic States 45,500. | |
| 1953 | 800,000 | de:Bruno Gleitze | Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung. | Gleitze estimated 800,000 civilian deaths (for Germany within 1937 borders only) among only "Eastern Germans" in the area of the expulsions. The figures in the Gleitze study were ignored by the Schieder commission report, issued in 1953, which gave a figure of 1.617 million civilian deaths among the eastern Germans (in 1937 borders) | |
| 1954–1961 | 2,356,600 (not including 550,000 including military and air raid dead) | Schieder commission | Dokumentation der Vertreibung der Deutschen aus Ost-Mitteleuropa | Details by country Oder-Neisse region 2,000,000(not including 500,000 military and 50,000 air raid dead); Czechoslovakia 225,600; Yugoslavia 69,000; Rumania 50,000; Hungary 6,000 Not included are Soviet Germans. The statistical information in the Schieder Report was later superseded by the 1958 German Government demographic study. | |
| 1958 | 2,225,000 | West German Government(Statistisches Bundesamt German Federal Statistics Office) |
Die deutschen Vertreibungsverluste, 1939–50 (German losses from expulsion, 1939–50) (August 1958) | Dr. Rudiger Overmans provided an analysis in 1994. | This is the official German government report on losses. Details by country Oder-Neisse region 1,338,700; Poland 185,000, Baltic States 51,400; Danzig 83,200; Czechoslovakia 272,900; Yugoslavia 135,800; Rumania 101,000; Hungary 57,000. Figures do not include 1,088,000 military and 11,500 civilian air raid dead; also not included are Soviet Germans or Germans resettled in Poland during the war. |
| 1958 | 2,098,400 | West German Government(Statistisches Bundesamt German Federal Statistics Office) |
Wirtschaft und Statistik November 1958 | Pre War Germany Oder-Neisse region 1,212,100; Ethnic Germans from East-Central Europe 886,300. Figures do not include 1,088,000 military and 11,500 civilian air raid dead; also not included are Soviet Germans or Germans resettled in Poland during the war. | |
| 1965 | 2,379,004 (473,013 Confirmed dead and 1,905,991 Unsolved Cases) | German Church Search Service/Red Cross | Gesamterhebung zur Klärung des Schicksals der deutschen Bevölkerung in den Vertreibungsgebieten, (General compilation towards accounting for the fate of the German population in the areas of expulsion), Munich, 1965- | Dr. Rudiger Overmans has provided an analysis in 1994 of this unpublished internal report of the German Church Service | This report was kept secret until 1986. A brief summary of data from the report was published in 1987. |
| 1966 | 2,111,000 | Federal Ministry for Expellees, Refugees and War Victims | Facts concerning the problem of the German expellees and refugees | Figure cited in A Terrible Revenge by Alfred de Zayas | Pre War Germany Oder-Neisse region 1,225,000; Ethnic Germans from East-Central Europe 886,000 |
| 1974 | 600,000 | German Federal Archives | Vertreibung und Vertreibungsverbrechen, 1945-1948 : Bericht des Bundesarchivs vom 28. Mai 1974 : Archivalien und ausgewählte Erlebnisberichte | Dr. Rudiger Overmans provided an analysis in 1994. | This report was archived and not published until 1989. Includes only estimated deaths due to acts of violence, deaths in camps and forced labor. Excludes losses resulting from war related famine and disease. |
| 1982 | 2,800,000 | Heinz Nawratil | Schwarzbuch der Vertreibung 1945 bis 1948 (the Black Book of the Expulsions 1945 to 1948) (Universitas Verlag, Munich, 9th edition 2001, p. 75) | According to the webpage of Heinz Nawratil the Munich Institut für Zeitgeschichte (Institute of Contemporary History)was rebuked and cautioned by the Bavarian State Government in April 1985 for it's criticism of the Sudetendeutsche Volksgruppe. In 1987 the German historian Martin Broszat head of the Institut für Zeitgeschichte (Institute of Contemporary History) between 1972 and 1989 described Nawratil's writings as "polemics with a nationalist-rightist point of view and exaggerates in an absurd manner the scale of "expulsion crimes". | Nawratil’s figures include the 1958 German government figure of 2.2 million dead plus his estimate of 350,000 Soviet Germans and 250,000 Germans who were resettled in the Poland during the war which were not included in the 1958 demographic study. |
| 1982 | 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 | West German Interior Ministry | Eingliederung der Vertriebenen, Flüchtlinge und Kriegsgeschädigten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland | Figure of Statistisches Bundesamt (German Federal Statistics Office) | |
| 1986 | 2,020,000 | Dr. Gerhard Reichling | Die deutschen Vertriebenen in Zahlen (the German expellees in figures), Teil 1, Bonn 1995, Tabelle 7, page 36 | This report has the endorsement of the German government. Includes those who perished as a result of the expulsion and deportation for forced labor in the Soviet Union. Includes the deaths of 310,000 Soviet Germans, and 108,000 Germans resettled in Poland during the war not included in 1958 report. | |
| 1995 | 2.2 million | German Church Search Service/Red Cross | Figure cited by Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova | The German Red Cross issued a statement that their research confirmed the results of the 1958 Demographic study that put total losses at 2.2 million. | |
| 2000 | 500,000 confirmed deaths; 2,000,000 total demographic estimate | Rudiger Overmans | Deutsche Militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg (German military losses in the Second World War) | The Overmans study did not investigate civilian losses, only military casualties, he merely noted that other studies of expulsion losses put confirmed dead at about 500,000. | Overmans believes new research on the number of expulsion deaths is needed since only 500,000 of the reported 2,000,00 deaths are confirmed. |
| 2001 | 600,000 total; 400,000 in Poland | Bernadetta Nitschke | Wysiedlenie czy wypedzenie? ludnosc niemiecka w Polsce w latach 1945-1949 p. 240. German translation Vertreibung und Aussiedlung der deutschen Bevölkerung aus Polen 1945 bis 1949 | Nitschke cites 1994 report of Rudiger Overmans as source for figures. | Figures from 1974 German Archives report mentioned above. |
| 2005 | 2,251,500 | German Church Search Service/Red Cross | Willi Kammerer; Anja Kammerer- Narben bleiben die Arbeit der Suchdienste - 60 Jahre nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg Berlin, Dienststelle 2005 ( Published by the Search Service of the German red Cross. The forward to the book was written by German President Horst Köhler and the German interior minister Otto Schily) | The German Red Cross did not provide details of this figure. | |
| 2006 | 500,000 to 600,000 | Ingo Haar | Interview on German Radio German Radio web site | Harr has published three articles on the historiography of the expulsions in post war West Germany. | Figures from German Church Service and German Archives reports mentioned above. |
| 2006 | 473,000 | Ingo Haar | In 2006 the German historian Ingo Haar called into question the validity of the official government figure of 2.0 million expulsion deaths in an article in the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. Polish translation of Haar in Gazeta Wyborcza. | Gazeta Wyborcza | Harr maintains that confirmed deaths of 473,000 is the correct figure, he does not include 1,906,000 unresolved cases that he believes to be unreliable. |
| 2006 | 400,000 | Ingo Haar | Polish translation of Haar after Süddeutsche Zeitung | Gazeta Wyborcza | Figures from German Federal Archive Report mentioned above for Poland only |
| 2006 | 2,000,000 | German Government | Statement on German Radio . | In a rebuttal to Ingo Harr, Christoph Bergner, Secretary of State in Germany's Bureau for Inner Affairs stated the position of the German government that 2 million died in expulsions. | |
| 2010 | 473,016 | Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova | Hans Henning Hahn and Eva Hahnova : Die Vertreibung im deutschen Erinnern. Legenden, Mythos, Geschichte. Paderborn 2010, | Figure from German Church Service mentioned above. The Hahn's maintain that most of the losses occurred in the flight during the war and about 80,000 occurred in the post-war period. |
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