Cyclone Elita - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

An area of thunderstorms developed in the Mozambique Channel on January 25, 2004, about 95 km (60 mi) west of Madagascar. Deep convection developed and organized around a mid- to low-level circulation, and at 0600 UTC on January 26, Météo-France (MFR) classified the system as Tropical Disturbance 06, about 105 km (65 mi) west of Maintirano, Madagascar. Six hours later, it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 06, and later that day the depression was named Elita. At the same time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing advisories on the cyclone. Strengthening at first was slow, due to moderate wind shear limiting the convection to the northern portion of the cyclone. Initially, the storm tracked in an unusual northward motion toward the equator, which was caused by a ridge to its west.

Early on January 27, Elita was upgraded to a moderate tropical storm, though later that day it weakened to tropical depression status. However, it quickly re-attained tropical storm status early on January 28, with convection increasing further. Elita turned east-southeastward due to a ridge to its north, quickly intensifying as it approached land and developing a well-defined eye on visible satellite imagery. It intensified to tropical cyclone status, or the equivalence of a minimal hurricane, at 1200 UTC on January 28. Three hours later, Elita made landfall on Bombetoka Bay in northwestern Madagascar with wind gusts of over 180 km/h (110 mph). The storm rapidly weakened to tropical depression status over land, though as it crossed the island convection re-developed over the waters east of Madagascar. Elita reached the southwest Indian Ocean by January 30, and its convection quickly organized into rainbands. It drifted southward a short distance offshore, slowly intensifying before attaining tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on January 31. About six hours later, after turning to the west, Elita moved ashore near Mananjary with winds of about 75 km/h (45 mph), as reported by MFR.

The cyclone quickly weakened to tropical depression status as it tracked westward across Madagascar, and late on January 31 it emerged into the Mozambique Channel. Deep convection increased as it reached open waters, with outflow improving. A strengthening ridge to its north caused Elita to decelerate before turning to the east-southeast. Late on February 2, the JTWC assessed Elita with peak winds of 120 km/h (75 km/h), and shortly thereafter MFR reported the cyclone as attaining peak winds of 110 km/h (70 mph). Early on February 3, Elita moved ashore near Morondava at peak intensity. Weakening rapidly while crossing the island for a third time, the cyclone emerged into the southwest Indian Ocean as a tropical depression by 0000 UTC on February 4. Despite initial forecasts of re-intensification, Elita accelerated southeastward and lost its remaining convection, leaving its center exposed under the influence of a strong upper-level trough. By February 5, it had transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, and its motion had halted due to weak steering currents. For about a week, the remnants of Elita meandered to the southeast of Madagascar before dissipating on February 13.

Elita's crossing of Madagascar three times is unusual, but not unprecedented; Severe Tropical Storm Felicia in January 1970 and Storm Justine in March 1982 accomplished the same feat.