Uncertainty in TAR Sea-level Projections
The different SRES emissions scenarios used for the TAR sea-level projections were not assigned probabilities, and no scenario is assumed by the IPCC to be more probable than another. For the first part of the 21st century, the variation between the different SRES scenarios is relatively small. The range spanned by the SRES scenarios by 2040 is only 0.02 m or less. By 2100, this range increases to 0.18 m. Of the six illustrative SRES scenarios, A1FI gives the largest sea-level rise and B1 the smallest (see the SRES article for a description of the different scenarios).
For the TAR sea-level projections, uncertainty in the climate sensitivity and heat uptake of the oceans, as represented by the spread of models (specifically, atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, or AOGCMs), is more important than the uncertainty from the choice of emissions scenario. This differs from the TAR's projections of global warming (i.e., the future increase in global mean temperature), where the uncertainty in emissions scenario and climate sensitivity are comparable in size.
Read more about this topic: Current Sea Level Rise, Future Sea-level Rise, IPCC Third Assessment
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