Commission To Assess The Ballistic Missile Threat To The United States - Conclusions

Conclusions

There were two final reports of the commission: a 300-page classified report for Congress and a 27-page unclassified report. In the unclassified version, the group came to four unanimous conclusions:

  • The US is threatened by ballistic missiles tipped with biological or nuclear payloads from China, Russia, Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. Iran and North Korea could develop the capability to strike the US within five years of a decision to pursue ballistic missile technology; Iraq would require ten years.
  • The US intelligence community has underestimated these growing threats.
  • The processes of the intelligence community to make estimates on this threat are causing an erosion of accurate assessments.
  • The US has a diminishing warning time before missile systems are operationally deployed, and may conceivably have no warning in the future.

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