Climate Change in Washington - Expected Outcomes

Expected Outcomes

For the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on Washington State, see the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group 2009 assessment report, available here.

Economic Impacts of Climate Change (2007) in Washington State (WA) summarized impacts on forest fires, public health, agriculture, municipal water supply, sea level rise and fisheries. These conclusions have been reached through several predictions, based primarily on temperature and precipitation models for climate change. The expected warming of 0.5 °F (0.2 °C) every ten years is the main source for any visible impacts. Although total annual precipitation is not expected to change significantly, the increase of temperatures will result in a more minimal snow pack leading to more rain.

Visible physical impacts on the environment within Washington State include glacier reduction, declining snow-pack, earlier spring runoff, an increase in large wildfires, and rising sea levels which affect the Puget Sound area.

According to The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in WA State, the major impacts of climate change in Washington State (2007) include:

1. Increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels.
2. Increase in temperatures: An estimated 2 °F (1.1 °C) by 2020 and up to 3 °F (1.7 °C) by 2040.
3. Earlier annual snow melt.
4. Sea level rise of about 3 inches to 3 feet (0.91 m) by 2100.
5. No change in volume of precipitation.

Less snow pack will also result in a time change of water flow volumes into fresh water systems, resulting in greater winter river volume, and less volume during summer's driest months, generally from July through October. These changes will result in both economic and ecological repercussions, most notably found in hydrological power output, municipal water supply and migration of fish. Collectively, these changes are negatively affecting agriculture, forest resources, dairy farming, the Washington wine industry, electricity, water supply, and other areas of the state.

In 2006, a group of scientists and economists published The Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s Economy, a preliminary assessment on the possible risks and opportunities given a rise in global temperatures occurs, and more specifically, the effects for the state of Washington. Three main conclusions were outlined:

1. Climate change impacts are visible and the economic effects are becoming apparent.
2. The costs of climate change will grow as temperatures and sea levels rise.
3. Climate change will provide economic opportunities.

The economy of Washington State will dictate the effects of these impacts. These effects are unique to Washington due to individual natural resources, climate patterns, industries, and trade.

Climate change can directly affect the amount of resources that generate economic activity. Climate change can also affect the quality of important resources such as fresh drinking water, irrigation of crops and the generation of electricity. Climate change can also accelerate the depletion of capital assets used toward the formation of seawalls that are needed to protect shorelines from rising sea levels. Climate change can affect human health in ways that impact families and the workforce (e.g., premature death, increased sick days or leave of absences, health care costs and insurance claims). All of these things also impair quality of life.

Washington state has a varied and active economy of approximately $268.5 billion. Washington’s gross state product is the sum of twenty-one economic sectors ranging from mining ($400 million in 2004) to real estate, rental, and leasing ($38.8 billion in 2004. The extent of vulnerability in dealing with climate related issues is hard to assess for each sector individually. National and international trade and inter-sector links stretch out the vulnerability to climate change effects.