Canadian Federal Election, 1993 - Legacy

Legacy

The 1993 election led to a major upheaval in Canadian politics. Since Confederation in 1867, Canada had a two-party system with the Liberals and Conservatives alternating in government. Since the 1920s there had generally been one or more third parties in the House of Commons. None of these parties came close to winning power and of those parties, the CCF, was the only one that achieved long-term success. The CCF became the NDP in 1961 by which time it had clearly established itself as the nation's third major party. It eventually gained enough strength to wield the balance of power in the Liberal minority governments of the 1960s and 1970s. After the 1984 election the NDP had ten less seats than the Liberals, there was considerable talk that the Liberals would follow their UK counterparts into continuous minor party status but, by 1988 they reestablished themselves as the main opposition party.

The 1993 election fundamentally changed the balance of power among the parties. Together Ontario and Quebec are guaranteed a majority of seats in the Commons under both Constitution Acts. Both provinces constitute nearly two-thirds of the Canadian population, it is nearly impossible to form a government without considerable support in one or both provinces. The Liberals were the only party with a strong base in both provinces making them the only party with a realistic chance to form government. The Liberals dominated Canadian politics for the next decade retaining almost all of its Ontario ridings while making steady gains in Quebec. They would not be seriously challenged until 2004, with the sponsorship scandal and party infighting reduced them to a minority government with continued strong support from Ontario. The Liberals retained the majority of the province's ridings, despite being defeated in 2006, finally relinquishing their lead in 2008.

As no party other than the Liberals had a realistic chance of forming government after 1993, some commentators felt that Canada had moved to a dominant-party system. The opposition was divided between four parties. Many commentators thought it ironic that Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition consisted of a separatist party. Many considered the Reform Party the de facto opposition on issues that did not pertain to Quebec and national unity. Some political scientists felt that the new five-party parliament was an example of a multi-party system. The five parties were reduced to four when the PC Party and Canadian Alliance (successor to the Reform Party) merged in 2003. From 2004-2006, a Liberal minority government faced three opposition parties, the new Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc. In 2006, the Conservatives became the Government, the Liberals relegated to official opposition, while the NDP and Bloc retained a significant opposition presence.

The Progressive Conservatives never regained their former standing in Canadian politics. In December 1993, Kim Campbell resigned as Conservative leader and was replaced by Charest, the only surviving member of the previous Cabinet. Under Charest, they rebounded to 20 seats in 1997. Despite the brief comeback of Joe Clark as leader in 1998, they were reduced to 12 seats mostly in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, winning only two seats outside this region in the next two elections.

The Reform Party became the Official Opposition in the 1997 election. Although Reform was now the major voice of the right in Canada, it was seen as too extreme by most Ontarians and thus had little chance of dislodging the Liberals. It was also hampered in Quebec because Manning could not speak French. In 2000, the party evolved into the Canadian Alliance, but even then won only two seats outside its Western Canadian base (both in Ontario).

In 2003, the Canadian Alliance under Stephen Harper and the Progressive Conservatives under Peter MacKay merged, creating the Conservative Party of Canada. The new party, led by Harper, was able to reduce the Liberals to a minority government in 2004 by capitalizing on the sponsorship scandal, though it was not able to reach the combined totals of the Tories and Alliance in 2000. However, it formed its first government, a minority, in early 2006 with Harper as prime minister, just over two years after the merger. Key to its victory was being able to make inroads into the eastern part of Canada as well as distancing itself from its Reform legacy with a more moderate agenda, winning a significant number of seats in Ontario and making a breakthrough in Quebec. In the 2008 election, the Conservatives won the majority of seats in Ontario for the first time since 1988.

The NDP recovered somewhat, regaining official party status in 1997. However, it would take another decade for the party to reach the same level of support it enjoyed in the 1980s. The NDP supported the Liberal minority government after the 2004 election but moved towards differentiating itself from the Liberals, including uniting with the other opposition parties to bring down the Liberals and force the 2006 election in which the NDP made substantial gains in the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois failed to propel the sovereigntist side to victory in the 1995 Quebec referendum and lost Official Opposition status in the 1997 election. It continued to lose seats 2000, however, it remained a significant presence in the House of Commons bolstered in recent years by the sponsorship scandal. The party nearly tied its 1993 vote total in 2004, but lost support to a resurgent Conservative Party in 2006. The Bloc's position continued to erode in 2008. The BQ won with 47 of Quebec's 75 seats but, saw its popular vote decline, although it remained an important force in federal politics for Quebec.

2011 saw massive change in the province, their popular vote fell to 25% and just 4 seats in the Commons, losing official party status and being treated as independents. Polls between elections showed their support was steady at 9% but, fell dramatically during the campaign to an exploding NDP. Gilles Duceppe lost his own riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie to the NDP candidate, and subsequently retired from federal politics.