California Democratic Primary, 2008 - Analysis

Analysis

California was once a Republican stronghold, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a diverse ethnic and Hispanic or Latino population and liberal regions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. Additionally, several historically Republican areas in the Bay Area swung toward the Democrats as the national party moved more to the right; the brand of Republicanism here was much more moderate than that practiced in the rest of California. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988, when George H. W. Bush narrowly won it. Bill Clinton won it handily in 1992, and the state has not been seriously contested since then.

Obama won by a historic margin, with 61.01% of the votes. The last time the margin was higher in the state was in 1936 when Franklin D. Roosevelt won by 66.95%.

In San Francisco and Alameda County (which encompass Oakland and Berkeley), four out of five voters backed the Democratic candidate. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, Obama won every county by a three to two margin or greater. In Los Angeles County, Obama won almost 70% of the votes.

Obama also made considerable headway in historically Republican areas of the state. Fresno County, for example, a heavily populated county in the Central Valley, went from giving Bush a 16% margin to a 1% margin for Obama. San Diego County moved from a six-percent margin for Bush to a 10-point margin for Obama--only the second time since World War II that a Democrat has carried this military-dominated county. San Bernardino and Riverside went from double-digit Republican victories to narrow Democratic wins. Ventura County also moved from Republican to Democratic. Orange County, historically one of the most Republican suburban counties in the nation, went from a 21-point margin for Bush to only a four-point margin for McCain--the closest a Democrat has come to winning that county since 1936, and McCain's narrowest margin in the state.

Voter turnout was also fairly higher in the election. The 79% turnout of registered voters was the highest since the 1976 presidential election.

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