Further Developments
Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford put forward the concept of Black Swan Blindness in order to explain how decision-makers are commonly surprised by out-of-control events, which often costs them their jobs and even their companies even though they know of Black Swan Events. (Flyvbjerg's and Budzier's concept and recommendations as applied to IT Projects have been challenged on conceptual and practical grounds ) While black swan blindness has disastrous consequences it itself is caused by well known managerial fallacies, such as:
- Illusion of Control
- Organizational desirability
- Self-service
The key symptom of black swan blindness is performance management systems that only track averages or expected values and ignore the variability of performance. The ignorance of an important aspect of risk and uncertainty leads to misguided management attention while exposing organizations to the effect of outlying black swans events.
Read more about this topic: Black Swan Theory
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