Belfast North (UK Parliament Constituency) - History

History

Belfast North has a unionist majority though the nationalist vote is considerable. It has generated particular interest for a number of highly unusual elections results, as well as for several candidates and MPs prominently disagreeing with their parties.

Of the five main political parties in Northern Ireland, four (the Ulster Unionist Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party and Sinn Féin) all have relatively strong support bases and routinely poll similar results. Other parties such as the Alliance, Progressive Unionist Party, Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, Conservatives and the Workers' Party have at times polled significantly, as have independent candidates, with the result that many elections have been won on comparatively low shares of the vote. The elections to the various assemblies have often seen the seats for the constituency heavily split - in 1998 no party won more than one Assembly seat.

The area saw a steady out movement of Protestants during the Troubles, to some degree replaced by a growing Catholic population, although the overall population of the area fell sharply. However, all the inner-city communities in the constituency are now haemorrhaging electors, and the overall ethnic composition of the constituency now seems stable.

The seat was consistently held by the Ulster Unionist Party from its creation until the 1970s. In 1972 the first notable dissent occurred when the sitting MP, Stratton Mills, dissented from the UUP's decision to withdraw from the Conservative whip at Westminster over the suspension of the Stormont Parliament. Mills remained as a Conservative MP, but the following year Mills joined the Alliance, giving them their only Westminster representation before 2010.

In the February 1974 general election the seat was won by John Carson of the Ulster Unionist Party with backing by the Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party on a united slate in opposition to the Sunningdale Agreement. Carson's victory came despite a majority of votes being cast for pro-Sunningdale candidates, albeit split between the Pro-Assembly Unionists, the Social Democratic and Labour Party and the Northern Ireland Labour Party. Carson held his seat in the October 1974 election but was deselected by the local Ulster Unionists over his support for the minority Labour government.

The 1979 general election saw one of the most dramatic results of all when Johnny McQuade of the Democratic Unionist Party won the seat with a mere 27.6% of the vote - the third lowest total for a successful candidate in a UK general election in the twentieth century. This came about due to the strong showing of several other parties, dividng the vote strongly. McQuade also had the distinction of being the oldest person to be initially elected to Westminster in the 20th century and did not restand at the next general election.

In 1983, Cecil Walker regained the seat for the UUP, beating Scotsman George Seawright of the DUP. In the 1987 general election the UUP and DUP agreed a pact in opposition to the Anglo Irish Agreement. Seawright had been expelled from the DUP and stood in the election, reviving the Protestant Unionist Party label, but was unsuccessful.

Walker continued to hold the seat until 2001 but gained a reputation for inactivity. In the 2001 general election the DUP contested the seat for the first time since 1983, with their candidate Nigel Dodds campaigning heavily on both their opposition to the Good Friday Agreement and Walker's record. Walker also suffered from a disastrous television interview during the campaign. In the election Walker's vote collapsed to a mere 12%, coming fourth whilst Dodds won the seat. The UUP vote fell even further in both the 2003 Assembly election and the 2005 general election and it seems extremely doubtful that they will retake the seat at the next general election. Much of the attention now focuses on the growth of the Sinn Féin vote,as there was an 5% swing in their favour in the 2010 general election, now making this an intensely marginal contest between them and the DUP.