The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the prior probability ("base rate") of H and the total probability of evidence E. The conditional probability can be expressed as P(H|E), the probability of H given E, and the base rate error happens when the values of sensitivity and specificity, which depend only on the test itself, are used in place of positive predictive value and negative predictive value, which depend on both the test and the baseline prevalence of event.
Read more about Base Rate Fallacy: Example, Mathematical Formalism, Findings in Psychology
Famous quotes containing the words base, rate and/or fallacy:
“They must to keep their certainty accuse
All that are different of a base intent;
Pull down established honour; hawk for news
Whatever their loose phantasy invent
And murmur it with bated breath....”
—William Butler Yeats (1865–1939)
“Whoever thinks his friend more important than his country, I rate him nowhere.”
—Sophocles (497–406/5 B.C.)
“I’m not afraid of facts, I welcome facts but a congeries of facts is not equivalent to an idea. This is the essential fallacy of the so-called “scientific” mind. People who mistake facts for ideas are incomplete thinkers; they are gossips.”
—Cynthia Ozick (b. 1928)