Barack Obama Presidential Primary Campaign, 2008 - Opinion Polling

Opinion Polling

After Obama's interview on Meet the Press, opinion polling organizations added his name to surveyed lists of Democratic candidates. The first such poll (November 2006) ranked Obama in second place with 17 percent support among Democrats after Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) who placed first with 28 percent of the responses. A Zogby Poll released on January 18, 2007, showed Obama leading the Democratic contenders in the first primary state of New Hampshire with 23 percent of New Hampshire Democrats supporting Obama. Clinton and John Edwards were tied for second place with 19 percent each. A Washington Post/ABC News poll on February 26–27, 2007 placed Obama in second place with 24 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with Hillary Clinton garnering 36 percent as the leader.

Opinion polls taken in April 2007 differ widely from each other: Obama was listed in third place nationwide, 24 percent behind Hillary Clinton and 2 percent behind John Edwards. In an April 30, 2007 Rasmussen Reports Poll, Barack Obama led the poll for the Democratic nomination for first time with 32 percent support. By June however, Clinton was winning all the major national polls by double digits except one that showed Obama with a one point lead, and by July, all major national polls showed Obama trailing Clinton by double digits.

Polling analysts are expected to take note of whether opinion polling statistics regarding Obama prove to be accurate, or are ultimately subject to the so-called "Bradley effect" observed in some previous American elections. This continued to be a concern in some earlier primary states, but as the season progressed Obama showed electoral success with white voters in states like Virginia and Wisconsin.

In a poll by the University of Iowa in July and August 2007 of Iowa Republicans, Obama received the third-highest percentage, with 7 percent of the vote - more than Republican candidates Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, and to-be nominee John McCain combined. Polls by the Washington Post and ABC News indicated that Republicans and independents were more likely than Democrats to answer that Obama would be the Democrats' best chance to win the election.

At the end of March 2008, Obama became the first candidate to open a double-digit lead in his national Gallup daily tracking poll results since Super Tuesday, when his competitor Hillary Clinton had a similar margin. On March 30, the poll showed Obama at 52 percent and Clinton at 42 percent. The Rassmussen Reports poll, taken during the same time frame, also showed an Obama advantage of five points. Another late-March poll found Obama maintaining his positive rating and limiting his negative rating better than his chief rival, Clinton. The NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama losing two points of positive rating and gaining four points of negative rating, while Clinton lost eight points of positive rating and gained five points of negative rating. A Newsweek poll taken on April 16–17 showed Obama leading Clinton 54 to 35 percent among Democrats and Democrat-leaning registered voters. The Gallup daily tracking poll showed Obama's lead over Clinton in the same group peaking at 51 to 40 percent on April 14 (results based on interviews April 11–13), then closing, and on April 19 (results based on interviews April 16–18) Clinton gained a lead of 46 to 45 percent, the first time Obama had not led since March 18–20. The next day Obama showed a lead of 47 to 45 percent over Clinton. The next day the Obama lead over Clinton increased to 49 percent over 42 percent.