Backtesting in Climate Modeling
Backtesting plays a critical role in the evaluation of weather and climate models. For example, in composing a new theory of hurricane formation, a model could be backtested against actual conditions that preceded and accompanied real hurricanes. If the model accurately forecast the location, strength, trajectory and duration of a past event, it would gain credibility for future predictions. Within the field of climate modeling, backtesting plays a particularly important role due to the scale and duration of climactic events. Using historical data to test new ideas and theories enables them to be evaluated for theoretical performance within a reasonable timeframe.
Read more about this topic: Backtesting
Famous quotes containing the words climate and/or modeling:
“There is much to be said against the climate on the coast of British Columbia and Alaska; yet, I believe that the scenery of one good day will compensate the tourists who will go there in increasing numbers.”
—Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882–1945)
“The computer takes up where psychoanalysis left off. It takes the ideas of a decentered self and makes it more concrete by modeling mind as a multiprocessing machine.”
—Sherry Turkle (b. 1948)