Backtesting in Climate Modeling
Backtesting plays a critical role in the evaluation of weather and climate models. For example, in composing a new theory of hurricane formation, a model could be backtested against actual conditions that preceded and accompanied real hurricanes. If the model accurately forecast the location, strength, trajectory and duration of a past event, it would gain credibility for future predictions. Within the field of climate modeling, backtesting plays a particularly important role due to the scale and duration of climactic events. Using historical data to test new ideas and theories enables them to be evaluated for theoretical performance within a reasonable timeframe.
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