Backtesting in Climate Modeling
Backtesting plays a critical role in the evaluation of weather and climate models. For example, in composing a new theory of hurricane formation, a model could be backtested against actual conditions that preceded and accompanied real hurricanes. If the model accurately forecast the location, strength, trajectory and duration of a past event, it would gain credibility for future predictions. Within the field of climate modeling, backtesting plays a particularly important role due to the scale and duration of climactic events. Using historical data to test new ideas and theories enables them to be evaluated for theoretical performance within a reasonable timeframe.
Read more about this topic: Backtesting
Famous quotes containing the words climate and/or modeling:
“A positive learning climate in a school for young children is a composite of many things. It is an attitude that respects children. It is a place where children receive guidance and encouragement from the responsible adults around them. It is an environment where children can experiment and try out new ideas without fear of failure. It is an atmosphere that builds children’s self-confidence so they dare to take risks. It is an environment that nurtures a love of learning.”
—Carol B. Hillman (20th century)
“The computer takes up where psychoanalysis left off. It takes the ideas of a decentered self and makes it more concrete by modeling mind as a multiprocessing machine.”
—Sherry Turkle (b. 1948)