Argument From Inconsistent Revelations - Mathematical Description

Mathematical Description

If it were to be assumed that:

  • The existence of some god is certain,
  • There is some number (n) of distinct, mutually exclusive interpretations of that god one could believe in,
  • There is no way to tell which one, if any, were true a priori

then the probability of having chosen to practice the correct religion (through upbringing or by making Pascal's Wager) is 1⁄n. Therefore, if there exist more than two distinct faiths, the probability that a person who chooses to believe in either faith has chosen the correct one would be less than 1 in 2 (50% or 1⁄2).

Since there are hundreds of religions in existence, some having thousands of sects with competing interpretations, the probability that a given person's religion should happen to be the one that is true (to the exclusion of all others) is diminishingly small.

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