Advance of The Islamic Courts Union - Course of The Conflict

Course of The Conflict

Until September, the conflict was limited to the Benadir region, and pitted petty warlord and pirate fiefdoms in a one-sided battle against the Islamic Courts, often with the local populace supporting the Islamists.

The ICU's capture of Kismayo brought them into an irresolvable conflict with the newly declared Jubaland and the Juba Valley Alliance forces. The JVA withdrew in the face of an overwhelming ICU army in the hopes that, when returning in full force, the JVA would be strong enough to retake Kismayo. In the ensuing battles outside of Bu'aale and Kismayo however, the JVA proved to be no match for the ICU, who defeated them easily. JVA forces began to crumble by November, as JVA militias began defecting to the ICU. By November 14, entire Marehan subclans began defecting to the ICU, setting up courts in Bardhere and Afmadow.

Puntland entered the conflict on November 12, attacking ICU positions south of Galkacayo. This led to immediate setbacks for Puntland as they lost several important pieces of military hardware including two tanks and many technicals. Puntland stepped up their deployment to the border significantly.

Southwestern Somalia and their military forces, the Rahanweyn Resistance Army, sat out the conflict entirely other than deploying several hundred troops in Baidoa to defend the city until December 1. On December 1 350 RRA soldiers defected to the ICU, along with the entire district of Dinsoor. A division of pro-Government RRA soldiers may still be deployed in support of the government at Baidoa, but this is unclear, as the overall RRA commander has opposed the government rather openly since the end of October. The RRA has a longstanding "wait and see" policy when it comes to involvement outside Rahanweyn clan territory, so alignment towards the ICU may tip the scales dramatically in favor of the ICU.

Though the ICU has been somewhat bellicose towards Somaliland, due to their alleged ill treatment of a respected Jihadist religious leader in Somaliland, and Somaliland has been quite hostile to the ICU whom they term "false prophets", Somaliland took no direct role in the conflict. Somaliland is traditionally the heartland of the AIAI, and support is quite high for the ICU in Somaliland territory, and conflict may occur in the future.