Error Management Theory
According to Error Management Theory, when making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, two kinds of errors need to be taken into account—"false positives", i.e. deciding that a risk or benefit exists when it does not, and "false negatives", i.e. failing to notice a risk or benefit that exists. False positives are also commonly called "Type I errors", and false negatives are called "Type II errors".
Where the cost or impact of a Type I error is much greater than the cost of a Type II error (e.g. the water is safe to drink), it can be worthwhile to bias the decision-making system towards making fewer Type I errors, i.e. making it less likely to conclude that a particular situation exists. This by definition would also increase the number of Type II errors. Conversely, where a false positive is much less costly than a false negative (blood tests, smoke detectors), it makes sense to bias the system towards maximising the probability that a particular (very costly) situation will be recognised, even if this often leads to the (relatively un-costly) event of noticing something that is not actually there. This situation is exhibited in modern airport screening—maximising the probability of preventing a high-cost terrorist event results in frequent, low-cost screening hassles for harmless travelers who represent a minimal threat.
Martie G. Haselton and David M. Buss (2003) state that cognitive bias can be expected to have developed in humans for cognitive tasks where:
- decision-making is complicated by a significant signal-detection problem (i.e. when there is uncertainty)
- the solution to the particular kind of decision-making problem has had a recurrent effect on survival and fitness throughout evolutionary history
- the costs of a "false positive" or "false negative" error dramatically outweighs the cost of the alternative type of error
Read more about this topic: Adaptive Bias
Famous quotes containing the words error, management and/or theory:
“Never miss an opportunity to allow a child to do something she can and wants to on her own. Sometimes we’re in too much of a rush—and she might spill something, or do it wrong. But whenever possible she needs to learn, error by error, lesson by lesson, to do better. And the more she is able to learn by herself the more she gets the message that she’s a kid who can.”
—Polly Berrien Berends (20th century)
“No officer should be required or permitted to take part in the management of political organizations, caucuses, conventions, or election campaigns. Their right to vote and to express their views on public questions, either orally or through the press, is not denied, provided it does not interfere with the discharge of their official duties. No assessment for political purposes on officers or subordinates should be allowed.”
—Rutherford Birchard Hayes (1822–1893)
“Many people have an oversimplified picture of bonding that could be called the “epoxy” theory of relationships...if you don’t get properly “glued” to your babies at exactly the right time, which only occurs very soon after birth, then you will have missed your chance.”
—Pamela Patrick Novotny (20th century)