A More Perfect Union (speech) - Effect On Voters

Effect On Voters

One of the crucial questions after Obama's speech was the effect, if any, it would have on voters in terms of their overall opinion of Obama and their willingness to vote for him in the remaining Democratic primaries and in the general election. Critical to these questions was the extent to which voters identified Obama with the views of Jeremiah Wright.

A Fox News poll taken immediately after Obama's speech on the evenings of March 18 and March 19 found that 57 percent of respondents did not believe that Obama shared the views of Rev. Wright while 24 percent believed he did share Wright's views. 36 percent of Republicans, 20 percent of independents, and 17 percent of Democrats believed that Obama shared Wright's views. The poll also found that 35 percent of voters (including 25 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents) had doubts about Obama because of his relationship with Rev. Wright. The racial division was especially noteworthy, with 40 percent of whites expressing doubts in comparison to only 2 percent of African Americans.

A CBS News poll taken two nights after the speech showed that 69 percent of registered voters who heard about or read about the speech felt that Obama "did a good job addressing race relations." 71 percent felt that Obama had effectively explained his relationship with the controversial reverend. An equal numbers of voters, 14 percent, saw themselves as more likely to vote for Obama after the speech as saw themselves less likely to vote for him, while 70 percent of voters felt that recent events had made no difference - a marked swing from numbers before the speech. The numbers were less positive for Obama when respondents were asked whether he would unite the country. Only 52 percent said he would, a drop of fifteen percentage points from a poll taken the previous month.

A poll taken by the Pew Research Center between March 19 and March 22 showed that although 35 percent of likely voters said that their opinion of Obama had grown less favorable because of the Wright affair, it had not had a significant effect on the support for his candidacy; he maintained a 49 percent to 39 percent lead over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic voters. The survey showed that 51 percent of the public had heard "a lot" about Reverend Wright's controversial sermons, and 54 percent heard "a lot" about Obama's speech. Of those who heard "a lot" about the speech, 51 percent felt that he had handled the situation well, as did 66 percent of Democrats (84 percent of Obama supporters and 43 percent of Clinton supporters).

Similarly, in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken between March 24 and March 25, 63 percent of registered voters said that they had been following the Wright story "very closely" or "somewhat closely." 85 percent said that they were disturbed "a great deal" or "somewhat" by Wright's comments. 46 percent said that they had heard or seen most of Obama's speech, and another 23 percent heard or saw news coverage of the speech. Of those who had seen or heard the speech, 55 percent were satisfied with Obama's explanation of his relationship with Wright, and 44 percent said they were reassured about Obama's thinking and beliefs on the issue of race. (46 percent of white voters who saw the speech said that they were still uncertain or doubtful about Obama's thinking and beliefs on race.) In this poll, Obama and Clinton were tied among Democratic voters with 45 percent each; in a hypothetical general election matchup against John McCain, Obama lead slightly (44 to 42 percent) while Clinton trailed McCain slightly (44 to 46 percent).

In the long run, the speech had a significant effect on some voters:

In his Philadelphia speech of March 18, 2008, prompted by the firestorm over his former pastor, he treated the American people as adults capable of complex thinking—as his equals, you might say. But what made that speech special, what enabled it to save his candidacy, was its analytic power. It was not defensive. It did not overcompensate. In its combination of objectivity and empathy, it persuaded Americans of all colors that he understood them. In return, they have voted to make him their President. —Hendrick Hertzberg, in The New Yorker