Possible Earth Impact
That 1950 DA has one of the best-determined asteroid orbital solutions is due to a combination of:
- an orbit moderately inclined (12 degrees) to the ecliptic plane (reducing in-plane perturbations)
- high-precession radar astrometry that is more accurate than visual-wavelength measurements
- a 60 year observation arc
- an uncertainty region controlled by resonance
The next radar opportunity for 1950 DA is in 2032.
If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it will approach near to the Earth on March 16, 2880. However, over the intervening time, its rotation will cause its orbit to slightly change as a result of the Yarkovsky effect. Available radar and optical data suggest two possible pole directions; one trajectory misses the Earth by tens of millions of kilometers, while the other has an impact probability of roughly 1 in 300.
The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization. The discovery of the potential impact has heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.
Read more about this topic: (29075) 1950 DA
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