Seasonal Forecasts
| Source | Date | Ref | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 15.6 | 8.6 | 4.1 | ||
| Average | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| Record high activity | 28 | 16 (Tie) | 10 | ||
| Record low activity | 8 (Tie) | 3 | 0 (Tie) | ||
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| NOAA | May 19, 2011 | 9–15 | 5–8 | 1–3 | |
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| 11 | 10 | 6 | |||
On May 19, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season. The climatologists expected 9–15 named storms, with 5–8 becoming hurricanes, and 1–3 becoming major hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy was expected to be 45 to 105% of the median. The below-normal activity forecast was because of increased wind shear and a high expectation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) throughout the peak months of July, August and September, together with lingering La Niña conditions at the beginning of the season. However, as of late November, there have already been eleven named storms, ten hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
Read more about this topic: 2011 Pacific Hurricane Season