2008
The world waits in anticipation for the elections in Zimbabwe. Robert Mugabe has made himself unpopular by governing a country where inflation runs at 100,000% – the world's highest – and where people have to scrabble round for food and fuel. The 84-year-old, however, has a tight grip on power after 28 years at the top. All the signs are that Mugabe has ensured that he and his party will win this months presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections.
Morgan Tsvangirai, who leads the larger faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is again a contestant. Tsvangirai, a former trade unionist and his party came close to toppling Mugabe in parliamentary elections in 2000 and in a presidential vote in 2002, but his leadership has been questioned since a serious within the MDC over strategy in the November 2005 senate elections. Simba Makoni, the other challenger was formerly a member of Mugabe's own party, Zanu-PF. Makoni, who served 10 years in Mugabe's government including a stint as finance minister, announced his defection from the party on 5 February to enable him to stand as an independent against his former boss and mentor. It is the first time that Mugabe has faced a challenge from within his own ranks.
One of the few polls Zimbabwean academics attempted to carry out showed Tsvangirai leading, with Mugabe second and Makoni third. But with more than 20% of people questioned refusing to answer, this can only be seen as a very rough guide.
The MDC has accused the government of printing millions of surplus ballot papers, raising the risk of vote-rigging. The MDC said leaked documents showed 9m ballot papers had been ordered for the 5.9 million people registered to vote. Opposition supporters have been beaten by Mugabe's thugs and in last-minute changes to voting procedures, police will be allowed a supervisory role inside polling stations rather than outside, a presence the opposition says is designed to intimidate voters.
Under Zimbabwean law, when several candidates contest the presidency the winning candidate must receive at least 51% of the vote, otherwise a second round between the two leading candidates must be held within 21 days.
If the results are disputed, the fear is of violence in Zimbabwe's more volatile areas in what could be a repeat of the violent aftermath of the Kenyan elections December. If the election leads to further confrontation, analysts say the African Union (AU) should be ready to quickly offer mediation for a power-sharing agreement and a transitional government.
Andebrhan Giorgis, of the International Crisis Group thinktank, has warned: "If the region's leaders were again to recognise an illegitimate government, Zimbabwe's dramatic economic disintegration would continue, and the inevitable next round of the struggle over Mugabe's succession could easily provoke bloodshed."
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