2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal Forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU), and separately by forecasters with the U.S. Government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to CSU, the average season between 1950 and 2000 had 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which five to seven reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes.

On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with 12–15 tropical storms, 6–8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2–4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Dr. Gray released a prediction on May 28 that was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.

Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards on August 6, citing mild El Niño conditions. His new forecast was 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching Category 3. Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast. A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength. The season ended up with 16 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, placing it above all forecasts.