Investigation and Tornado Forecast
In the aftermath of the first tornado, an official inquiry was conducted into the failure to predict the destructive tornado. Air Force investigators came to the conclusion that "due to the nature of the storm it was not forecastable given the present state of the art." They also made recommendations that the meteorological community determine a tornado warning system for the public, as well as a protocol for protecting life and property at military bases.
Both of these investigations began almost immediately. In the days following the tornado, Tinker's meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller investigated surface and upper-air weather data from this and past tornado outbreaks, hoping to be able to identify conditions which were favorable for tornadoes. By March 24th, they had compiled several possible tornado indicators, and decided it would be difficult, but possible, to identify large tornado threat areas in the future.
On the morning of March 25, base meteorologists noticed that weather charts for the day were strikingly similar to those before the March 20 tornado. Forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau indicated that almost the same conditions would be present in the evening of March 25th as were present on March 20. In the morning, they issued a forecast for "heavy thunderstorms" effective for 5–6 pm that evening. This would allow the base's commander to alert base personnel that they may institute their brand-new tornado precautions.
As the day wore on, conditions appeared more and more favorable for thunderstorms, and more and more similar to the events of March 20th. Weather radar images showed a severe squall line had formed to the west, and weather stations to the west reported cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms. In an afternoon meeting, under some pressure from their commanding officer, base meteorologists composed and issued the first official tornado forecast. Although they were aware of the small chance of success, they felt they had no choice, since the conditions were so similar to March 20. Equipment which could be was moved to bomb-proof shelters, and base personnel were moved to safer areas.
Read more about this topic: 1948 Tinker Air Force Base Tornadoes
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